Thoughts from Bruce Riedel, Special Advisor to NATO, Brussels, Belgium (2003-2006); Member, Royal College of Defense Studies, London, UK (2002-2003); Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Near East and North African Affairs, National Security Council (2001-2002); Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Near East and South Asian Affairs, National Security Council (1997-2001)

Nearly 2000 days ago, a gang of 19 al Qaeda terrorists committed the largest act of mass murder in our country’s history. The men who organized that attack are alive and well and still planning terror and violence. Furthermore, they have pronounced victory in Afghanistan and Iraq declaring “the empire of evil is about to come to an end.” As a result, their affiliates around the world are growing.
The al Qaeda movement began in 1998 as an alliance to several Islamic groups to kill Americans and their allies in order to liberate Islam from their grip. In less than a decade, bin Laden has established a truly global presence. Since 911 al Qaeda and their sympathizers have carried out acts of terror in Algiers, Casablanca, Madrid, London, Istanbul, Kuwait, Bali (just to name a few), not to mention all the mayhem in Iraq and Afghanistan. And despite former Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld’s words to the contrary, the Taliban is flourishing  In 2002 al Qaeda was on the ropes. We almost captured bin Laden. Instead, American forces concentrated on pursuing another cause in Mesopotamia and let the number one most wanted man slip away. Now five years later, the Taliban has made a significant comeback with al Qaeda’s help. There were two suicide operations in Afghanistan in the entire year of 2002. Now there is one every 72 hours.
On September 26, Muli Omar, the self-proclaimed commander of the faithful, said: “I am considering two promises: one is the promise of God and the other of Bush. The promise of God is that my land is vast. If you start journeying on God’s path, you can reside anywhere and will be protected. The promise of Bush is that there is no place on earth where you can hide that I cannot find you. We will see which promise is fulfilled.” Like most people, Afghans remember who promised what and validation occurs when they see who was right.
There are three reasons for the Taliban resurgence.
(1)   The Taliban was never really defeated in 2001; they merely disbursed and bided their time. The Taliban adjusted its tactics – like suicide bombers and improvised explosive devices from the Iraq war and the al Qaeda organization provided help in transmitting these tactics along with the funding to support them. Indeed, according to numerous Taliban statements, Osama bin Laden is actively involved in planning many of their operations in Afghanistan as well as in Iraq.  
(2)   The coalition, especially the U.S., took its eyes off the Afghanistan ball and directed its attention toward Iraq. Afghanistan was given little reconstruction assistance after the Iraq war began. Less than one billion dollars was put into Afghanistan in 2002 and 2003, the critical years in the battle against the Taliban.
(3)   The Taliban benefited enormously from having a safe haven and help in Pakistan. They have strong ties with the Pakistani Intelligence illustrated best during the December 1999 Indian airflight 814 hijacking when al Qaeda, the Taliban, Kashmirians and the Pakistanian Intelligence all collaborated together. There is no doubt that the Taliban has used Pakistan territory to regroup. In addition, al Qaeda has used Pakistan as a fertile recruiting ground for operations against the West and Israel.

The U.S. should not consider invading Pakistan. But we should try to work with this country. We need to help Pakistan get out of the Kashmir conundrum. The timing is good. India and Pakistan have the best dialogue. The timing is right for the U.S. at a senior level to help India and Pakistan resolve their fundamental differences over Kashmir. Until we break the nexus between Pakistan and jihadism, we are not going to defeat al Qaeda. The overall al Qaeda strategy is to bleed the U.S. and its allies in a series of quagmire wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Samalia, and other places. Since Sept 11, al Qaeda has gone on the offensive.  Al Qaeda’s most successful plans have been in Iraq. Bin Laden was quick to respond to America’s plan to invade this country. Months before the invasion, bin Laden urged his followers to go to Iraq and prepare a trap for the occupation. They have been successful in precipitating the Sunni-Shiite war which now grips that country. Thus, the continuance of the Iraqi war supports the overriding goal of the al Qaeda network. Their greatest fear is that the US and its remaining allies will leave Iraq too soon. This, they fear, will leave the Shiites to dominate the country when the Americans go and repress them ruthlessly. Further, they fear that America will leave the trap that has been set up for them. This will deprive al Qaeda of the opportunity to destroy American forces which they have caught in an historic trap.

Summary from Rene: It’s time to take a new approach. The President is focused on a military approach. Many democrats are focused on a diplomatic approach. I prefer the latter to the former. But Bruce Reidel is saying that we need both. We need to use our military to go after Osama bin Laden before his global presence causes more hatred for the U.S. among Muslims around the world. We need to work with countries like Pakistan to help them out of their dilemma. It isn’t more troops we need. It is more of us to become mediators of good will if we are to resolve the conflict in the Middle East.